Saturday, August 7, 2010

Is confirmation bias the spear in cupids heart?



Photo: The amazing Mimi Wolfe


This very insightful article came to me via my mate Dish on facebook, and he said it was a must read - and it was.

The crux of the article is that the more we think about something rationally, the less we have a clear upsight on what it means, rather we try to put constraints on it so it fits a point of view.

-------------------- BEGINS --------------------------------

Their hypothosis was this:

"That the function of reasoning is argumentative. It is to devise and evaluate arguments intended to persuade."

This is further expanded below:

Reasoning so conceived is adaptive given human exceptional dependence on communication and vulnerability to misinformation. A wide range of evidence in the psychology or reasoning and decision making can be reinterpreted and better explained in the light of this hypothesis. Poor performance in standard reasoning tasks is explained by the lack of argumentative context. When the same problems are placed in a proper argumentative setting, people turn out to be skilled arguers. Skilled arguers, however, are not after the truth but after arguments supporting their views. This explains the notorious confirmation bias. This bias is apparent not only when people are actually arguing but also when they are reasoning proactively with the perspective of having to defend their opinions. Reasoning so motivated can distort evaluations and attitudes and allow the persistence of erroneous beliefs. Proactively used reasoning also favors decisions that are easy to justify but not necessarily better. In all of these instances traditionally described as failures or flaws, reasoning does exactly what can be expected of an argumentative device: look for arguments that support a given conclusion, and favor conclusions in support of which arguments can be found.

-------------------- ENDS ----------------------

Having been through what I have recently I found the whole article and the attached paper very telling - as I really believe that a lot of relationships are broken up by confirmation bias and that these studys show what poets and mystics have know for thousands of years:

Follow your heart - respect your emotions

I know how hard it is to not let the self get in the way and knowing there are forces like this in play only helps me to be more resolute.

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